Nigerien Coup and Decision Trade-off

Some weeks ago, the country Niger experienced a sudden change, change inspired by military coup that put the do-nothing Democratic president in house arrest too the time of writing this blog.

Ecowas in response have issued a treat of using force to oust the military, if he refuses (going forward) to return the Nigerien political to democratic Governance.

In my opinion the ECOWAS leaders should have weight several options with opportunity cost before making the declaration above, without groupthink or selfish ambition.

1. At least, almost 95% of the Nigerien were in support of the coup, because the former administration failed to prove that democracy was worth embracing the country.

2. If ECOWAS happens to use military without patient deplomacy, forces in other countries allied to Niger will respond with speed. And the result will be war that won't end so soon.

3. Several Nigeriens are abound in most of the African countries, including the Hausa and Fulanis in the Northern Nigeria. The probability that this two ethnic groups that have enormous members in the Nigerian military might join Niger soldiers to fight ECOWAS is close to certainty. This is because they won't afford to turn their borders and ancestral land for zone.

Your comment will be well appreciated to help expand the frontier of this post.

Thanks

Comments

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