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The Life Cycle of Regimes: From Consolidation to Decay

No regime lasts forever. Political orders arise from specific historical conditions, build momentum, and eventually decay toward an end point. Regimes emerge in moments of crisis or transformation, consolidate authority through institutions, ideology, and elite consensus, and often enjoy early legitimacy grounded in stability, growth, or charismatic leadership. Over time, however, these same structures can ossify. Institutions designed to govern become tools of exclusion, elites grow insulated from society, and adaptability gives way to rigidity.

The Maduro regime in Venezuela illustrates this trajectory. Born from the populist legitimacy of Chavismo, it has survived through militarization, patronage, and repression, even as economic collapse and mass emigration hollow out its social base. Similarly, the Islamic Republic of Iran, forged through revolutionary fervor in 1979, now confronts deep legitimacy crises marked by generational protest, economic strain, and reliance on coercion over consent.

History shows that collapse is rarely sudden. It is preceded by prolonged decay, moral exhaustion, and popular disillusionment. The end point is not merely failure, but transition, as new forces seek to redefine power and legitimacy in altered historical circumstances.

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