State of Globalization in years to come

Russian invasion in Ukraine has briefly polarized the world. Global alliances are now strengthened and divisions are deepen. 

NATO states are more united than ever, while China is working tirelessly to reshape and herald a new world order, unleashing economic war to weaken the western democracy alleged to have been globalized by the Washington Consensus .

Unless there is another major global crisis that surpasses covid-19 pandemic, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, globalization dynamics will further intensify. 

 

A once-in-a-century pandemic has created the opportunity for an economic and social reset as dramatic as that of the Progressive era.

 

Covid-19 has not just pummelled the global economy. It has changed the trajectory of the three big forces that are shaping the modern world.

 

Globalization has been truncated. The digital revolution has been radically accelerated. And the geopolitical rivalry between America and China has intensified.

 

However, with the ICT revolution still in full swing, we can expect in five year’s time the emergence of new communication devices that are not even imaginable today.

 

The decline of face-to-face interactions and physical contact–two basic human qualities will foster a strong sense of community among people.

 

At the same time, the pandemic has worsened one of today’s great scourges: inequality. 

 

And by showing the toll of being unprepared for a low-probability, high-impact disaster, it has focused more minds on the coming century’s inevitable and even higher-impact disaster, that of climate change. 

 

All this means there is no going back to the pre-covid world.

 

Jihadist globalism will collapse given the current global war on terrors.

 

Russian style Oligarchy that led to the invasion in Ukraine, won't spread global, but will rather see an end point, as the west will intensify supports for Ukraine and beyond!

 

The post-covid world will be far more digital. From remote working to online retail, the pandemic has compressed years’ worth of transformation into months, bringing with it a dramatic shake-up in how people live, what they buy and where they work.

 

Globalization will still be about goods and capital crossing borders, and about justice globalism but less of jihadism.